Current US Allowances and Preparing for The Next Level of BVLOS ...

Whether for food deliveries, cargo and parcel payloads, or life-saving medical supplies, the promise of drone delivery has captured the imagination of consumers and logistics operators worldwide. The speed, efficiency, and emissions savings that delivery drones offer can improve your business’ bottom line, excite your end customers, and potentially save lives. While we’d love to say deploying delivery drones is simply a matter of raising the capital to launch a drone fleet, the current day reality of drone delivery in the United States is a little more complicated than that.

You can find more information on our web, so please take a look.

So, as comes to a close, let’s take a look at where the US currently stands in terms of drone delivery regulations, what types of deliveries you could launch today, and how anticipated regulatory changes may supercharge any drone delivery business.

Evolving BVLOS Allowances – The Much Anticipated Coming of Part 108
As demand for farther reaching drone operations continues to grow rapidly, proposed mission parameters continue to push the very edges of what is currently possible under the limitations of Part 107. First published in , Part 107 has simply been outpaced by the drone industry’s rapidly advancing technology and the acceptance of drone delivery by the public, leaving operators having to apply for waivers to operate in more densely populated areas and for longer distances. As a result, the FAA has been developing new regulations (potentially called Part 108) to expand package delivery operations in BVLOS without a requirement to become a certified airline. These new regulations will govern BVLOS drone flights for aircraft potentially up to 1,320 pounds (light sport aircraft limit). The implementation of Part 108 is expected to be a major driver of drone adoption and expansion with ever increasing pent-up demand for BVLOS use cases.

So, when will these new regulations go into effect? That’s currently the million-dollar (more likely multi-billion dollar) question. The FAA has spent years working with drone industry stakeholders as it fleshes out the new Part 108 details. Earlier this year, federal lawmakers, in an attempt to push the new regulations into practice as soon as possible, set a September deadline for the regulators to issue a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), the first step in the adoption of new regulations. Unfortunately, that deadline has been missed, and the agency has most-recently noted that it anticipates the first step towards publication and public comment are now planned for early . The original Part 107 regulation took about 18 months to go through public comment and debate, modification, and into full effect from the date of its NPRM issuance, so one can now anticipate operations under the new Part 108 will not be happening until well into , at least.

A2Z Drone Delivery is Preparing for Part 108
While the future of drone delivery under Part 108 has been slightly delayed, there are still many drone delivery use cases which can be conducted under existing regulations.

To ensure A2Z Drone Delivery customers will be able to navigate the transition to operations under Part 108 as seamlessly as possible, we have been extensively testing our commercial delivery and patrol drones under BVLOS conditions and in extreme weather and wind conditions at our Ground Zero Test Facility. With Part 108 expected to place additional scrutiny on both drone hardware and their operators as compared to Part 107, we are proving the reliability and safety of our airframes in advance of this anticipated need and gathering the necessary data to support those applications.

By the time Part 108 goes into effect, A2Z Drone Delivery also anticipates offering customers a tested Part 107/108-certified platform as well as an option that will have completed the CMD process allowing it to be operated by Part 135 drone airlines. Also, A2Z will develop a Part 108 regulatory framework for operators (based on current Part 135 regulations and the upcoming Part 108 NPRM).

Contact A2Z Drone Delivery for Regulatory Assistance
Hopefully, this primer has helped you better understand what commercial drone delivery use cases are currently possible under the existing regulatory structure here in the United States, and has whet your entrepreneurial appetite for what the near-future holds for a drone delivery business.

If you are considering launching a standalone drone delivery business, offering your customers food delivered by drone, or adding drone delivery to your enterprise or governmental operations, please reach out to us for further assistance in navigating the FAA’s regulatory process. We can connect you with our regulatory experts to assist in the waiver process, setting up an aviation department, or preparing you for Part 108 or Part 135 operations. We have the necessary data at hand, and resources on staff, to educate and advise your team on this entire process. Whether you need assistance applying for waivers, planning drone delivery operations, or developing operation, maintenance, safety, or training manuals, we have experts with years of experience working with the FAA and the industry to create drone programs and standing up drone operations from ground zero.

Contact A2Z Drone Delivery

Trial projects are being conducted using drones to deliver fast-food and groceries, with plans to expand such aerial services into more widespread use. BILL READ FRAeS examines the pros and cons of using drones for consumer deliveries and ask whether such aerial deliveries are financially viable.

Need a coffee in a hurry? Just order it by drone. (Zipline)

Picture the scene. You are sitting at breakfast and fancy a coffee and a sandwich. No problem – you simply use your smartphone to access your local fast-food supplier and order some. Within a few minutes, a small drone appears and hovers over your garden as it lowers a package containing your purchase onto your driveway. With 10 minutes you are continuing your breakfast.

A vision of the future? Not so – in some places this is already happening and many companies are busy working to introduce this service around the world.

Worldwide air freight traffic has been steadily increasing. (Statista)

One of the few air transport sectors to benefit from the onset on Covid has been air transport. According to figures published by data analysis company Statista(1), world air cargo volumes initially fell in to 56.1m tonnes, down from 61.5m tonnes in but then rose again to 66.2m in with a further projected increase to 69.3m in .

One cause of this increased demand for air freight is a lack of maritime capacity resulting in delays to seabourne deliveries which has created the need for faster air deliveries by air. In addition, the Covid lockdowns have accelerated the move towards e-commerce, where many customers around the world have made greater use of online shopping where goods are delivered to their houses rather than visiting shops in towns. At the same time, there has also been a rise in the use of digital currency instead of paper. Another trend has been the increasing use of drones to deliver goods, particularly medicines and essential supplies to people and places isolated during Covid quarantines.

All these factors are creating conditions which could be ideal for a revolution in customer home deliveries – through the air by drones.

The concept of home deliveries by small cargo-carrying UAVs predates Covid and a number of transport and logistics companies have been working on plans for a number of years, not always successfully. As with plans to introduce urban air mobility eVTOLS to carry passengers, there are many challenges yet to be overcome.

Drone specialities

Matternet delivers medical supplies by drone in Abu Dhabi. (Matternet)

Drones are already being used for a wide variety of applications, including monitoring crops and livestock, assisting in search and rescue, inspecting buildings and patrolling vital infrastructure. A particular specialist area is carrying small packages, such as medical supplies, spare parts or military equipment. The world’s largest drone delivery network is operated by US company Zipline International, which uses electric-powered UAS to deliver medical products by parachute in Africa, particularly in Rwanda and Ghana. Zipline’s drones  can fly autonomously over distances of up to 50mile radius (plus return flights making a total of 100miles). In addition, drone start-up Matternet operates a drone delivery network in Lesotho and recently announced the launch of a medical drone delivery network in Abu Dhabi. DHL conducted a pilot project in using parcel drones to deliver medicine to remote areas and the Austrian postal service tested the drone delivery of small packages in . In the UK, the Royal Mail has conducted a number of drone delivery trials, the most recent of which was a two-week trial in October using Windracer drones to deliver letters and parcels 35miles between Kirkwall and North Ronaldsay in the Orkney Islands.

Drone delivery is already here

Wing delivery drone. (Wing)

Deliveries of commercial products direct to customers by drone is already a reality. Alphabet, which also owns Google, operates a drone delivery company called Wing which operates in the US, Australia and Helsinki in Finland. Wing’s drones operate autonomously with routes determined by distance, weather conditions and airspace regulations. On arrival at a delivery point, a Wing drone lowers a package in front of homes using a winch and can then return to its depot to wirelessly recharge from a landing pad. In the US Wing has conducted trials delivering consumer goods from local businesses to rural communities in Blacksburg and Christiansburg in Virginia. Following approval from the Australian regulator CASA, Wing commenced a food delivery service from local shops to residents of Canberra and Logan City, delivering a variety of products. At the end of Wing announced that its worldwide operations for the past 12 months accounted for over 140,000 deliveries to customers, a 600% increase over .

Back in the US, in November , US supermarket chain Walmart teamed up with Zipline to launch an on-demand delivery service of health and consumable items close to its HQ in in Pea Ridge, Arkansas. Zipline operates from a Walmart store and can service a 50-mile radius. Walmart is also to conduct additional drone delivery trials in Bentonville, AR, using Zipline drones, as well as Fayetteville, NC (using Israeli Flytrex quadcopters) and Grand Forks, ND, using Flytrex drones.

Manna already delivers food to customers in Ireland. (Manna)

Over in Ireland, a company called Manna operates an autonomous drone delivery service in Galway delivering coffee and food products which claims to have already completed 65,000 delivery flights. Each Manna drone runs up to eight deliveries an hour, flying at 50mph at 150-200ft using lidar and radar to find a safe spot to drop off supplies. Most deliveries are within five minutes.

Manna is planning to expand the service to other locations in Ireland, followed by mainland Europe and then Canada. The US is not currently on Manna’s list, due to its more complex regulations.

Still from a JD.com promotional video showing drone delivery to rural areas of China. (JD.com)

In China, transport delivery company JD.com has been operating a rural drone delivery service since and expanded its services to provide medical supplies during the Covid pandemic. JD.com is no stranger to new technology, having opened the world's first unmanned sorting centre in Jiangsu province which is said to be able to sort up to 9,000 packages an hour.

Not always a success

Amazon Prime Air delivery drone technology demonstrator. (Amazon Prime Air)

While small scale local drone delivery services have so far met with success, attempts to create a wider delivery network have not all met with success. A surprising casualty in the race to implement drone parcel deliveries has been global e-commerce mega corporation Amazon Prime. In Amazon launched Amazon Prime Air with a drone R&D division based in a new office, which included a public relations campaign with a video of a delivery test flight and claims that the first commercial drone deliveries would commence within a few years. The plan was to create a fleet of Amazon drones capable of flying up to 15 miles carrying packages weighing up to 5lb (2.3kg). However, the project folded in after failing to fly a single commercial parcel drone. An investigation by WIRED.com(2) claimed that Amazon Prime Air ran into problems caused by poor management of the drone division, high staff turnover and problems related to creating autonomous collision-avoidance systems.

DHL’s Parcelcopter delivery drone never got past the proof of concept stage. (Deutsche Post)

Another company which failed to complete the course was transport logistics company DHL which announced in August that it would be discontinuing its Parcelcopter delivery drone development programme.

Challenges

Autonomous drones need a lot of extra features to operate safely. (Wing)

The creation of a working fleet of commercial parcel-carrying drones for ‘last-mile’ delivery involves a variety of challenges, some technical, some regulatory and some involving non-controllable external factors. The first of these involves navigation. Last-mile delivery drones would have to be able to fly long distances (to reach isolated communities), autonomously, at low levels under 400ft to avoid other airspace users. They therefore need to be programmed to find their way to and from their destinations without colliding with low-level objects, such as power lines, trees or high-rise buildings, other low-airspace users such as para-motors, helicopters and military aircraft, ground vehicles and, most importantly of all, people on the ground. 

Such drones could either follow a pre-determined route overseen by a remote pilot or operate autonomously. The European Union Aviation Safety Authority (EASA)(3) states that an automatic drone requires a remote pilot to take control in unforeseen events for which the drone has not been programmed. An autonomous drone needs to be programmed to find their way to and from their destinations without colliding with low-level objects, such as power lines, trees or high-rise buildings, other low-airspace users, vehicles and, most importantly of all, people on the ground.

The automotive sector’s proposed six stages of automation could also be adopted for drone operations. (Society of Automotive Engineers)

However, truly autonomous drone operations are still a while off. In the short-term, according to experts from the RAeS UAS Specialist Group, there are also lessons that could be learned from the automotive sector. The Society of Automotive Engineers has proposed six levels of automation (LOA) for road vehicles in Standard J which could be applied to drone operations (see above).

Regulatory plans will see remotely piloted operations of highly automated drones that are equipped with LOA 2 and LOA 3 systems providing flight and situational awareness information to the remote pilot (who is responsible for safe separation) in sufficient time for he/she to make necessary changes to the flight path.

In the medium term, with increasing levels of automation and autonomy to LOA 4, the drone will be able to take emergency action (to avoid a collision) independent of the remote pilot who will the option to then take control if necessary. However, the creation of certifiable LOA 5 autonomous systems to remove the need for a remote pilot will take significant time and effort and can only be considered to be a long-term proposition.

The CAA has devised a detect and avoid ecosystem for autonomous drones. (CAA)

There are currently two main technologies available for drones to detect nearby objects. The first is radar which sends out radio waves and measures their reflections from obstacles. The second is lidar, which uses laser beams to provide detailed images of nearby features. Although new technology is improving both systems, they are currently still relatively expensive and heavy, which will add to the non-payload weight of a delivery drone.

The drones must also avoid areas with no-fly zones, such as airports, which might lie across their routes. In addition, the systems also need to be able to identify different objects they might encounter, as well as different types of ground to land on or to place packages – such as the difference between a lawn, a roof and a swimming pool. In addition the drone needs to be programmed with algorithms which instruct the systems what to do in an emergency, such as an imminent collision or crash. In some cases where any action will result in damage or injury, the programmer will need to decide which option to choose. The RAeS UAS Group comments that this implies the use of deterministic algorithms to create high levels of (repeatable) automation. However, significant effort is being expended in developing artificial intelligence (AI) based systems using deterministic and non-deterministic algorithms to create autonomous systems that will determine the best course of action.

According to WIRED.com, one of the problems faced by Amazon’s data analysis teams was try and to create machine learning for their drones’ autonomous navigation systems by studying test flight footage to identify different threats or objects which the drone needed to avoid, including humans and animals on the ground and other objects in the sky.

All these issues needed to be considered over a variety of different scenarios, such as night time operations, rain, fog, snow or high winds.

Regulations

The CAA plans to introduce BVLOS drone operation in stages. (CAA)

Another hurdle is that of regulations. Every country has its own set of regulations governing the use of UAVs. Many rules for operating personal recreational drones impose restrictions on weight (under 25kg in the US), how high they can fly (not more than 400ft), when they can fly (daylight hours) and where they can fly (must be in the user’s line of sight, mustn’t go near buildings or close to people on the ground).

In the UK, BVLOS operation requires permission from the Civil Aviation Authority. The CAA has published guidance material for operating BVLOS drones(4) which provides a roadmap to progress towards safe routing BVLOS flights in the UK. The CAA began a drone BVLOS test project in to prove concepts ahead of potentially opening it up to the wider market.

While many countries allowed exemptions to the standard regulations to permit the testing of long-distance UAVs, many of the rules still not permit them to be used for autonomous BVLOS flights. The US in particular poses a particular challenge, in that there are multiple rules to adhere to – from federal agencies, state regulations and city laws.

In the US, the FAA’s Part 107 Drone Regulations, which have been in force since , require a remote pilot to command a single UAV within line of sight which does not fly over certain areas or over a non-participating person or a moving vehicle. To be exempt from these rules requires a Part 107 waiver. US drone operator Matternet obtained approval to conduct package deliveries under Part 107 but only achieved this because it was flying limited operations from one hospital in one area.

However, to operate multiple drones beyond visual line of sight requires drone delivery companies to operate under a different set of rules by obtaining Part 135 air carrier certification. Wing Aviation obtained a Part 135 air carrier operating certificate in April , followed by UPS in October and Amazon in August .

Although UPS’ operating certificate is reported to have no limits on the size of operations, Wings’ initial exemption and Part 135 operating certificate was only for single pilot operation within certain areas, while Amazon’s was limited to deliver parcels up to 5lb within a UAS test range. they also needed to obtain separate airspace authorisations from local and state governments.

Is there a market here?

What would you not pay for fast delivery times? (Wing)

Once the regulations and technology have been sorted out, prospective drone delivery companies face two more challenges – will there be a demand for their services and will they be financially viable?

The most obvious advantage of drone delivery is that of quicker delivery times. David O’Conner, a specialist in neuroeconomics from the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)(5) explains that human brains perceive time as a cost, creating a preference for immediate gratification with the result that customers will choose options which produce immediate results regardless of other factors. This is a factor well known by retailers who try and encourage last minute ‘impulse buys’ in shops or to pay extra for faster delivery times. 

Even on-line customers have yet to be convinced about the advantages of drone delivery. (Clutch)

A recent survey by US market research company Clutch(6) questioned online shoppers about their opinions on drone delivery. According to the survey, 50% of those questioned were uncertain of their opinion on drone deliveries, while 31% were excited about the potential of delivery drones. When asked about the benefits of drone delivery, 33% of online shoppers believed such a service would be faster than other shipping methods but only 21% thought it would be less expensive. A total of 36% of online shoppers said they would be more likely to order a package if a drone was going to deliver it, 39% weren’t bothered either way and 25% would be less likely to order. Some of the online shoppers expressed concerns that their packages might get damaged during delivery (20%) or that the drone might be stolen or hacked (19%).

Another survey was conducted in Germany by Goethe University in Frankfurt(7) which also looked at drone deliveries from a customer perspective. The survey predicted that the greatest enthusiasm for drone deliveries would come from individuals in the millennials generation, keen to try out new technology. It was also expected that customers would be keen on drone deliveries because of anticipated faster deliveries, lower prices, and reduced environmental impact.

Uber has conducted drone food delivery tests with a fast food restaurant in the US city of San Diego in which the drone lands in designated areas where it will be picked up by Uber employees to delivered to a customer’s home. (YouTube/UberEats)

For more information, please visit NEW WING Drone Winch.

However, although these positive factors were of importance in influencing customer opinion, the main conclusion of the report was that the most important factor was the trust that they had in the new technology weighed against its perceived risks. Customers were concerned that there could be delivery failures due to malfunctioning technology, hacking or theft, in addition to delays caused to bad weather conditions or airspace routing restrictions. In addition, the report concluded that financial and time-saving motives did not have such an expected effect on customers’ decision to engage in drone deliveries, although shorter delivery times did.

While neither survey was of statistical significance (the Goethe University study had 116 participants while the Clutch consumer survey in the US questioned 528 people already involved in online shopping), nor had any participants actually had a drone delivery, the points raised are still worthy of consideration by UAV delivery companies.

Under the drone flightpath

Not all people beneath a drone’s flightpath may welcome them. (Flirtey Skydrop)

In addition to customers planning to use delivery drones as a service, there are also people who are not using them but are living underneath their flightpaths (who the CAA drone regulations refer to as ‘uninvolved persons’). The view of these people will be important to ensuring the public acceptance, or otherwise, of delivery drones. Their opinions will be influenced by two major factors – safety and noise.

Safety not in numbers

Gatwick airport exclusion zone. (CAA)

In additional to the challenge of navigating autonomously to avoid obstacles already described above, delivery drones are also going to be operating in a thin altitude band, from zero to 500ft, known as very low level (VLL) airspace. VLL airspace in urban areas is going to be congested with large numbers of permanent and non-permanent artificial and natural obstacles. Urban areas may also have temporary and permanent no-fly-zones that prohibit drone flights over particular locations such as schools, parks, stadiums and government buildings, protected by geofences. If plans for the development of urban air mobility systems come to fruition, delivery drones will also have to share high-density VLL airspace with fleets of flying eVTOL taxis under some form of air traffic management (ATM) system. Work on UAS ATMs, including deconfliction management and dynamic capacity management, is under development, one example being U-Space in Europe(8).

Another factor is that delivery drones are expected to be much larger and heavier than recreational UAVs (weighing up to 25kg to enable them to carry large packages) and so could pose a greater risk to both people and property should they crash due to a malfunction, accident, collision or bad weather.

You wouldn’t want to be beneath a drone if it fell out of the sky. (UPS Airlines)

The heaver the drone, the more drones that are flying and the more densely populated the area, the greater the risk. Should an accident occur in which a delivery drone hit a building, vehicle, aircraft, injured or even killed a person on the ground, the repercussions could impact the whole drone delivery industry (and by association eVTOLs too) and could result in the banning of such flights. Manufacturers will have to design and certify larger drones to significantly more stringent airworthiness requirements than smaller drones, while commercial operators will not only have to obtain regulatory approvals to fly them but to do so safely and in a manner acceptable to the public. 

Noise

The more rotors, the more noisy a delivery drone could be. (Wings)

A major public acceptance issue is that of noise, which is not a subject which drone delivery companies include in their promotional material. Domestic drones have been monitored at least 20 decibels and larger parcel-carrying drones will be louder than this. While the noise of the electric motors in a drone is much quieter than a helicopter, the noise made by a drone’s multiple rotors can be greater, as the smaller propellers have to move air more rapidly to stay aloft. Drones also make higher pitched buzzing sounds than helicopters, which have much lower frequencies because their larger rotors don’t need to rotate as fast to generate the necessary lift.

The heavier a payload that the drone is carrying, the faster its rotors will have to spin to keep it aloft. The closer that a drone flies to the ground, such as when hovering or delivering a parcel, the louder a noise it will be, or appear to be to the public.

The noise from drones could pose a negative issue in determining public opinion, particularly when it is remembered that delivery drones could operate in previously quiet areas which have not been exposed to heavy traffic or overflying aircraft. The more drones that are delivering, the louder and more prolonged the noise. A recent NASA study(9) concluded that people find the specific sounds drones make to be particularly annoying.

Privacy

Just who and what could you record from a drone? (Flytrek)

There are also privacy concerns. There have already been many legal cases in the US related to drones being flown close to private properties with claims over safety, noise, damage, personal intrusion and privacy. In order to navigate to where they are directed to go and to maintain situational awareness, delivery drones would have to have the ability to sense their surroundings, process, transmit and/or record data. However, although customers might have to sign an agreement allowing a drone to fly over their property to deliver their goods, there could still be claims of intrusion from third parties. In addition, there is the risk that data gathered by drones related to individuals and property could be misused by third parties.

Environment

One of the advantages of drone delivery promoted by companies is that they will be more environmentally friendly and will reduce traffic congestion with fewer vehicles being used by ether delivery companies or customers going to shops. A joint university study published in Nature Communications(10) claimed that drones are more efficient (and more environmentally friendly) than ground-based delivery options, provided that the drone does not spent too long using up energy in the air.

With growing public awareness and concerns over green issues, a perceived environmental advantage will be an important factor in determining the public acceptance of drones. But how environmentally friendly will a fleet of delivery drones be? The negative issue of noise has already been highlighted but there are other factors which the public will become aware of.

One of the advantages cited by drone delivery companies is to reduce traffic congestion. However, there is the risk that a successful service will lead to increased demand, resulting in more congestion. Delivery drones can only deliver over short distances, so more storage and distribution hubs will need to be created to operate them from, which will increase road traffic.

As with other electrically powered vehicles, there are also hidden environmental costs, such as how the energy to charge the batteries is created and the adverse effects of mining lithium to create the batteries. What would be the effect on the environment of creating large numbers of battery-powered delivery drones and how easily could they be later recycled? Environmentalist have also pointed out that rising demand for drone deliveries may also lead to an increase in waste packaging.

Wildlife

Still from a YouTube video posted by Canberra resident Ben Roberts of a video of a raven attacking a Wing drone that was delivering his coffee order. (Ben Roberts/YouTube)

A less studied environmental issue is the effect of drones on wildlife. A European Environment Agency report on drones and sustainability published in (11) not only described delivery drones as ‘a technology with uncertain potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from e-commerce and the logistics industry and concerns over increased noise pollution’ but also highlights the potential environmental conflicts with animals and birds. Because they will fly at low altitudes of less than 500 metres, drones are likely to come into contact with wild animals. In addition to the risk of drones hitting wildlife or bird strikes, some animals might view a low-flying drone as a threat or even as prey. There have been multiple recorded incidents in which birds have attacked drones, including one in which Wing had to ground its delivery drones in the Canberra suburb of Harrison after they were attacked by ravens(12).

The situation has not been helped by birds being encouraged to attack drones. In Netherlands police trained eagles to take down drones which they considered posed a threat to public safety. However, the project ended in after the police admitted that training the eagles was more expensive and complicated than they had anticipated and the eagles wouldn’t always do what they were trained to do.

Even if wildlife does not come into direct contact with drones, there is the risk that their breeding patterns and survival could be adversely affected by them.

Drones - attack and defence

Might other people be tempted to steal your drone delivery? (Manna)

In addition to the issue of safety, delivery drones could also pose a security risk. UAVs have already been used for illicit purposes, such as smuggling, delivering drugs or weapons and for terrorist attacks. Delivery drone operators would have to set up security systems to protect drones against cyber-attacks which could either cause them to crash or to fly to security-sensitive areas.

Drone deliveries might also trigger a rise in crime as thieves attempt to steal both the drones and their potentially high-value cargoes. There could also be a risk of attacks against drones from individuals reacting against noise, intrusion or environmental concerns or from political motivations.

There is a growing industry in the detection of drones, assessing if a flight is unauthorised and then deciding the best course of action. A recent EASA report(13) cites a number of incidents in which flights from European airports had been temporally suspended due to drone incidents. Even during the dramatic decrease in air traffic seen in caused by Covid-19, EASA reported a total of 92 drone interferences. Drone detection systems sometimes include counter-UAS devices which deploy a physical object such as a net to down drones or use lasers to disrupt the drones’ navigation systems. At present these devices have been largely used by military or security personnel to protect areas of high security but it is not impossible that they could be used by individuals to down drones which they believe are infringing their privacy or to steal their contents.

Can delivery drones make money?

Predicted increase in drone numbers in five European countries between and . (Journal of Air Transport Management)

Having looked at the potential pros and cons of drone delivery from a customer and public point of view, it is now time to ask the question – can drone delivery services actually make money? As with the market for UAM eVTOL air taxis, it is one thing to design and build flying platforms and another to be able to operate them to make money.

The particular advantages of using drones is that they can fly fast directly to customers and are potentially cheaper to operate than road-based delivery alternatives. Two particular markets have been identified as being ideal for drone deliveries. The first is for local fast food deliveries or small grocery orders – as has already been proved in a number of trial schemes. The time advantages can be impressive - Wing’s Australian delivery service claims an average delivery time of 10 minutes, with its quickest time– from order placement to product in hand – being only 2 minutes 47 seconds.

Expected number of parcel delivery drone flight traffic volume per hour in the Paris metropolitan area for three scenarios. (Journal of Air Transport Management)

A paper published in the September Journal of Air Transport Management(14) examined potential traffic demand between and for different countries in Europe, together with a detailed case study of comparing the cost of delivering fast food within the Paris metropolitan area compared to using e-bikes.

The study made a number of assumptions, including an average of 30min to deliver a single package per trip and drones being unable to fly for 20% of a year due to adverse weather. The drones would also have to operate using an airspace traffic management system, such as U-Space. Participating restaurants would also have to pay to integrate take-off, landing pads and docking stations.

Each drone would also be subject to various costs, including purchase, modification, battery cost and charging, maintenance, depreciation, insurance, labour and airspace utilisation costs.

The report concluded that, the cost of operating a fleet of food-delivery e-bikes would be nearly twice as much as using drone-based delivery. Although e-bikes would initially cost less to purchase than drones, they would be more expensive to operate due to labour intensive delivery trips. Another conclusion was that costs could be even lower if technology improved to the extent that human operators could oversee a number of autonomous drones at the same time.

The second market identified as ideal for drones is for ‘last-mile’ deliveries of consumer goods where it is quicker to use a fleet of UAVs to deliver directly to multiple customers than delivering packages one by one using a road vehicle. The economics of last-mile delivery are determined by two factors: route density (the number of drop-offs made on a delivery route) and drop size (the number of parcels per stop). The greater the number of deliveries over a short time or distance, the lower the cost of each delivery.

Blueprint for Amazon’s collective UAV for carrying heavier loads. (US Patent & Trademark Office)

Although they can fly fast and direct, drones can only deliver over short distances and can generally only carry a single, small, light payload, although some platforms can now conduct multiple drops in one flight – one example being the Wingcopter 198 which can deliver up to three packages(15). Single-payload small delivery drones would not be the transport of choice for carrying heavy or bulky items – although Amazon did file a US patent in (16) for a collective UAV which uses groups of interconnected drones which could transport objects as heavy as a sofa. After the drone makes its delivery, it has to fly all the way back to base to recharge its batteries and pick up the next package. The longer the journey, the fewer flights a drone can make per day and earn money for its operator.

Local hubs

Delivery drones need to operate from a local hub. (Wing)

The fact that delivery drones today only have a limited range (no more than 15km (10 miles) means that they would have to operate from a local hub. If this hub is a local take-away or grocery store, this would not be a problem but, if the business plan involves last-mile delivery of consumer goods, then each local drone network would need to operate from a local distribution centre. Each of these local warehouses would have to carry a full range of goods which customers might order, as well as facilities for operating drones. More road vehicles will be needed to take goods to the regional depots which would increase traffic congestion.

In addition to the cost of construction, these new distribution centres would require power to operate and staff to work in them which would undermine the cost efficiency of using short range drones rather than long distance road vehicles. Some on-line delivery companies do not have a good reputation for looking after their staff, which means that corners could be cut to satisfy delivery targets which is not a good safety scenario when the delivery involves flying a heavy UAV through populated areas.

Insurance

Because delivery drones will fly close to people and property, another factor to be considered is that of insurance. The CAA requires every UAS operator to ensure they have appropriate insurance coverage. Insurance cover for drone operators is a fast-expanding industry(17), although one of its original start-ups, Flock, announced in December that it would no longer be offering new drone insurance policies(18). However, the insurance premiums will vary depending on the perceived risk, so drones that operate in populous or high-risk locations will cost more to insure than those in less populated or rural areas. To reduce risk (and noise) levels, drones could be routed over rivers, parks, gardens and less densely populated residential areas, a move which might not be welcomed by those beneath the flight paths.

Drop-off points

Drop-off stations don’t have to look intrusive - a stylish Matternet drone delivery station at EOC hospital group in Lugano, Switzerland. (Matternet)

Another issue is that of delivery points. In the promotional adverts for drone deliveries, the drone is seen landing or lowering a package onto a customer’s spacious lawn or driveway. However, what happens if a customer lives in a flat or a tower block – how will their package be safely delivered? One suggestion is the drones could leave goods to be collected from a drop-off station near homes and offices. This could also solve many of the issues of public safety (and privacy) posed by drones, particularly if they fly only over safer less-populated areas. However, this solution rather undermines the advantages of point-to-point delivery and would involve more time and inconvenience for customers than road-based deliveries.

Victim of their own success?

Do drone deliveries only seem like a good idea when there are not too many of them? (Wing)

Even in scenarios where drones do make money, an unexpected consequence of creating a successful drone delivery service is that the economic advantages could actually get worse the more popular the service is. If there are not enough drones to satisfy demand, then delays will occur, which will lead to customer dissatisfaction because they are not getting instant deliveries. If more drones are introduced into service, then they will use more energy, require more human operators, create more noise and could increase the risk of accidents in congested areas.

Alternatively, there would be fewer financial advantages in operating drones in less populated areas with fewer customers where delivery times would be longer or even out of range.

Another issue is that there will be peaks and troughs in demand. To take the example of food deliveries, if everyone wants their coffees and pizzas simultaneously at meal times, there could be a demand for hundreds of flights at the same time, which a depot might be unable to supply. There could also be times when demand is low and hub operators are sitting around surrounded by hundreds of unused drones waiting for an order to come in.

A question of scale

A related question is how big could the drone delivery market become? An outlook study by SESAR(19) estimated a total of 70,000 delivery drones operating in Europe by while a study conducted by Airbus(20) predicted an average of 16,667 delivery drones operating every hour, or a traffic density of 8,333 delivery drones, for Paris by , a figure much lower than the Paris fast-food study highlighted earlier which predicted that the metropolitan area of Paris could expect 63,596 drone-based deliveries by .

However, what seems unlikely to happen is that drone deliveries could ever completely replace conventional package deliveries. Amazon Prime, FedEx and UPS are reported to currently deliver 10bn packages a year in the US. If just 10% of these were delivered by single payload drones, this would result in 1bn drone flights a year, equivalent to 2.7m deliveries per day. The remaining 90% of deliveries would still be by road.

What is also predicted is the drone deliveries might not be the cheaper option that customers are hoping for. Knowing that time is money, shrewd drone operators would charge a premium for fast delivery.

Conclusion

Part of history already? In Wing delivery drone No A, which participated in the first residential drone delivery service in the US, became a part of the collection at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum in Washington, DC. (Wing)

In conclusion, there does seem to be a potential market for delivery drones but only in certain areas. Local fast-food deliveries look like a promising niche market while last-mile delivery of e-commerce goods might only work in particular circumstances. The most efficient use of drones might be within a mix of transport delivery options using both air and land vehicles.

Drone delivery is more challenging where customers are living in buildings with no gardens. (Wing)

However, while having food or groceries delivered by drone may a viable option for people with large gardens and plenty of open space, it is not feasible for people living in flats or high-rise buildings. The fast delivery option may not always be possible in bad weather or high winds.

There may also be unique aerodynamic challenges in inner cities due to the Venturi effect, where wind speeds increase dramatically in the narrow spaces between buildings. Researchers from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and Gaetz Aerospace Institute conducted trials in Kosovo in (21) to study the effects of urban landscapes on drones which created a digital map of the city with the aim of modelling fluid dynamic models of air flow.

Drone deliveries also come with a number of negative elements – most important of which is safety. Suppose the drone or its package lands in a tree, in someone else’s garden, on a roof, a car, a road or even on a passing pedestrian? What happens if the customer who orders a drone delivery has mobility issues and is unable to come out to collect a package? There could be a temptation for antisocial behaviour – such as attempts to shoot down drones carrying high value equipment or steal them on the ground. There might even be a risk that the drone navigation systems could be hacked to take them to different destinations. There are also potential issues related to noise, damage to the environment and effects on wildlife.

As with many other drone applications, it could turn out that drone deliveries will operate successfully in specialist niche markets where their twin advantages of speed and point-to-point delivery outweigh the potential disadvantages. In other areas, the issues of safety and noise might turn public opinion against their use. Will the future be being able to order a coffee to be delivered to you in two minutes, or will it be enduring the constant noise of hundreds of large noisy drones buzzing over your head delivering to other people?

Watch the skies!

For more information, please visit Drone Delivery Winch.

References:

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2. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/amazon-drone-delivery-prime-air
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